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CMG, X, IBM...
4/11/2019 11:04am
Chipotle, Keurig Dr Pepper downgrades among today's notable calls

Check out today's top analyst calls from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.

JEFFERIES CUTS CHIPOTLE TO HOLD: Jefferies analyst Andrew Barish downgraded Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) to Hold from Buy while raising his price target for the shares to $700 from $600. After rallying 65% in Q1, Chipotle's valuation is full and reflects improved visibility for "powerful" same-store-sales and margin drivers, Barish tells investors in a research note. While the analyst expects "strong" Q1 results on April 24, he sees potential headwinds from beef and marketing costs.

BOFA DOUBLE DOWNGRADES U.S. STEEL TO UNDERPERFORM: BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Timna Tanners double downgraded U.S. Steel (X), to Underperform from Buy, citing worse near-term U.S. market conditions than she anticipated. Her channel checks indicated that recent price hikes have not stuck and that benchmark hot rolled coil prices have retreated to their yearly lows in recent days, Tanners told investors. Given sharply lower scrap prices are pressuring U.S. steel prices, she sees limited catalysts and cut her price target for U.S. Steel shares to $18 from $31.

CREDIT SUISSE INITIATES TECH HARDWARE STOCKS: IBM (IBM), NetApp (NTAP), and Xerox (XRX) were initiated with an Overweight rating, Apple (AAPL), Dell Technologies (DELL), and HP Inc. (HPQ) were initiated with a Neutral rating, and HP Enterprise (HPE) was initiated with an Underperform rating at Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse analyst Matt Cabral initiated IBM with an Outperform rating and a price target of $173, citing the impact of the company's pending Red Hat (RHT) acquisition generating synergies while bringing together the industry expertise and incumbency to "help customers move to hybrid". Cabral added that while IBM has sustainable free cash flow of about $12B ex-Red Hat, he expects the deal to be cash flow accretive in the first year, becoming the company's "main driver of growth."

Cabral initiated NetApp with an Outperform rating and a price target of $89, citing the company's relative advantage in a "push toward hybrid" with its "cohesive all-flash business and Data Fabric strategy" and expects its market share to grow to 14% from 12%. Cabral also noted NetApp's rebound in product sales as a leading indicator for services, anticipating services revenue growth to accelerate to 2% in FY20 and 5% in FY21 from 1% in FY19. The analyst adds that NetApp has gross margin upside from the higher margins in Product and improved sales mix in Services segments.

Cabral initiated Xerox with an Outperform rating and a price target of $42. The analyst believes that the company's "significant margin potential" is not being captured in the Street consensus, modeling about 5pts of "cost opportunity" over the long term.

Cabral started coverage of HP Enterprise with an Underperform rating and a $14 price target. The analyst cited fading IT spending tailwinds, with focus returning to building risks on largest and high-margin segments.

MORGAN STANLEY CUTS KEURIG DR PEPPER TO UNDERWEIGHT: Morgan Stanley analyst Dara Mohsenian downgraded Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) to Underweight from Equal Weight as he sees a negative risk-reward despite a "well telegraphed" Q1 earnings beat on strong pricing at heritage Dr. Pepper Snapple. Based on the firm's recent AlphaWise survey, the analyst sees risk to coffee growth, noting that his forecast of around 1.5% is below the market-implied 4% long-term coffee topline growth, which is a key driver of his EPS forecast by 2021 being 5% below consensus. Additionally, Keurig Dr Pepper shares trade at a premium to the average of beverage peers Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP) despite lower expected long-term topline growth, Mohsenian noted. He cut his price target on Keurig Dr Pepper shares to $24 from $27.

JPMORGAN BOOSTS FIVE BELOW TO OVERWEIGHT: JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss upgraded Five Below (FIVE) to Overweight from Neutral and raised his price target for the shares to $150 from $133 after hosting management at his firm's Retail Round-Up. Management expressed "strong confidence" in both the near-term and multi-year 20%-plus sales growth driving 20%-plus annual earnings growth, Boss tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes the core drivers of Five Below's positive 3.8% trailing five-year average comp remain in early innings.

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